Phish returns tonight

And now for something completely different -

After determining that a trip to the West Coast to see Phish was out of my budget (and vacation days remaining...) I am left wondering what unpredictable moments I'll be missing while Phish entertains the legions in the coming weeks. Thanks to Web 2.0 these moments will be delivered in near real-time, but it won't be the same.

A recently-started project is adding to fuel to the fire. In a massive archival undertaking, I am consolidating every concert amassed during the height of my Phish-obsessed days (anyone who knew me from 2000 to 2005 knows) onto a single hard drive for easy listening. This may not sound like a big deal until the details are revealed - over 600 CDs and DVDs worth of music data that had to be dug out of the depths of closet storage, containing approximately 1/2 concert each. This isn't an effort to boast - only to give context to the period in my life where there were three interests: baseball, class, and Phish.

I became a fan in high school during the band's first hiatus, and spent almost every day searching out audience recordings of their renowned live performances. Then, the magical weekend came and I had seen Phish live. Rather than satisfy my need for their musical output, it only served to accelerate the obsession. According to the list that I religiously maintained through the collection (though haven't updated since Dec '04), there are no less than 736 hours of live Phish in my possession. If you're asking yourself "Why?" at this point, you're normal.

Phish 2.0 describes the years 2003-2004, after which the band broke up "for good" as the band put it. As we know, they've gotten back together and Phish 3.0 is in high gear. My enthusiasm for the band has waned, helped no doubt by growing up a bit, but also by the band's relatively staid on-stage presence and playing. There have been highlights, no doubt, but the creativity that made them famous has largely given way to tension/release guitar solos and straight-forward playing of traditionally improvisational pieces.

Discouraged by the band's recent trend, I set out on the aforementioned crusade to remind myself why I fell in love with this goofy foursome. Hopefully this won't result in a self-inflicted seclusion from friends and society, but rather a welcome diversion from thinking about the economy-at-large.

Here's a cool interview-

Where we're headed

I remain bearish in regards to the US economy, despite the recent stock market rally. I simply don't see how our economy can undergo a recovery with 10% unemployment. Our GDP was inflated by consumer credit and full employment. Now that the credit bubble has burst, and employment levels are lower, our country's production will remain suppressed for quite some time. Fewer people with jobs mean fewer people spending money, and fewer people spending money means less profits for companies - large corporations and small businesses alike. It appears to me that it is a vicious cycle, with each effect becoming the next cause. With lenders such as CIT having trouble staying afloat, many small businesses in America will struggle to maintain the financial strength to continue operating in an environment of lower sales. As we have seen, bailout money has certainly saved the "financial system" - take a look at Goldman Sachs' latest 10-Q. But did it save America? Ask small businesses.

Here is an update to the stock chart idea from a few months ago, comparing recent market action with that of the Great Depression.

First, a picture of the stock market from 1928 - 1932:



And now 2007 - today:



I am not simply saying that history will repeat itself here with regards to the stock market rallying, then completely collapsing. It would be rudimentary to say that because Chart A happened, Chart B will turn out the same way.
All I am presenting is evidence against those in the media that use the stock market rally as their own 'evidence' that an economic recovery is underway.

And, the greater point of all of this is that government has failed us by inflating a bubble that has now burst. If our elected officials would get out of the way by reducing or eliminating the income tax and cutting out all of the waste in all levels of government, our capitalistic economy could once again rise to occasion and better our standard of living.
By continuing its policy of deficit spending and increasing taxes (if you believe Obama's pledge not to increase taxes, you may want to read up on what economists are saying about his health care plan, or what his policies will do to the value of your US Dollar in savings), our government is damning us to a decreased standard of living.

January Stimulus Estimates were waaaay optimistic

In January, the Obama administration-elect put forth this projection of the impact of its stimulus package. We are currently much worse than they had projected had no stimulus taken place.
I'm not saying that the White House has a crystal ball, but if they could not come any closer than this, do we really want them trying to allocate our tax dollars in an effort to 'fix' the economy?





Source - Google Stats, January report from the office of the Vice-President Elect/Council of Economic Advisors

The Future Point

I just experienced a thought that I haven't had in a long time. While in the middle of something, usually an obstacle or anxiety-inducing event, I used to think about the point in the future when I would be finished and back to the state of 'normalcy'. The first time I can recall having this thought was when I was learning to wear contact lenses. The first two months or so were pretty awful - I have sensitive eyes, so the thought (and action) of inserting foreign objects into my oculars presented a pretty daunting situation. So, whenever I was having an especially bad time of it, I would just center my thoughts around the point in the future when contacts would be second-nature to me and there was nothing to worry about.

These thoughts picked up in frequency with the onset of college baseball, specifically the physical conditioning aspect of it. At the beginning of the 1.5 miles in 10 minutes run that players had to complete before admittance to the first practice at Young Harris, I found myself desperately looking forward to the day that I would attend practice for the first time as a fully-initiated player. Unfortunately, due to my lack of physical conditioning in high school, it took over a week for me to complete the test, with twice-a-day tries. So when that glorious day did finally come, it was all the more special because I could look back and think about the times that I had thought about the exact moment that I was now living.
There are more, but I think the idea has been conveyed.

So, strangely enough, I had this same thought process just 15 minutes ago as I picked up my toothbrush and began brushing away the day's meals. A pretty basic task, brushing is... not usually worth much thought or mention. Yet, for some reason, tonight I was really peeved by the interruption in the Tonight Show (now with Conan O'Brien, to my joy) that it presented. I found myself envisioning... myself... plopped on the bed watching everyone's favorite 6'4" Irish Late-Night host deliver the goods before I hibernate in preparation for Wednesday.

What does mean?

My conclusion is that there has been a distinct drop-off in the number of challenges or obstacles in my life since graduating. While dreading something is never fun, and a difficult task can be an unpleasant opponent, these things yield a life worth telling someone about. I miss that.

So, with that, I've decided to pack up and move to Pakistan to train to climb K2. There, I should have plenty of opportunities to look to the future point.

Just kidding.....
maybe

Even ***IF*** a recovery is coming...

This stock market rally is premature

Employment Data from ADP, stock index prices from Yahoo